Forecasting extreme weather events

As I write this blog post, wildfires are ripping through the west coast of America. The biggest wildfires on record. This morning I was watching videos of the destruction that the fire left. Seeing distraught families come back to the homes in rubble. Many people could not claim insurance as the companies bowed out earlier due to the risk of wildfires. In northern California, a major industry there is wine production. I saw farmers rushing to pick grapes before the fire gets to them. Normally the farmer can wait till the grapes are ripe. But this time they had to collect all they can get. One town in California had a famous winery turned into rubble. The winery was a local landmark. Fires have burned over million acres of land.

While one of the wildfires started because people wanted to do a baby reveal party with polytechnics. The local climate did not help. Due to dry weather and windy weather. Making the dry vegetation work as fuel for the fire. And strong winds causing the fire to spread rapidly. As the climate generally gets warmer higher temperatures will be more normal. So experts say we need to get used to it as this is the new normal. In Colorado, temperatures dropped to around 2C with snow. Just coming from a record-breaking heatwave of 38.3C. The contrast is jarring. Between an inferno in Oregon and California and the below-freezing temperatures in Colorado.

As are weather system is complex and interconnected. People are saying that the changing weather is connected to typhoons in Asia. Affecting the local jet stream.

For extreme weather events like this. This is where short term forecasting comes along.  According to climate.ai paper. People have been using ML techniques for a while to improve forecasting accuracy. Daily weather forecasts need to be produced every day and tested every day. So they can be accurate as possible before heading to the morning shows. Maybe ml can help analyse for data from the around the world. To predict weather events like this. Where we can see the connection between an event in another continent and how it would affect your local area. Which is important.

I watched a video of a Californian tech company. Using satellite data to access the risk of wildfires. Making them more precise. As insurance companies use normal maps. And block out whole neighbourhoods without going to a house by house basis. This may be the future of insuring people in fire-prone areas. As wildfires like this are forcing people to move outside the state entirely. But from watching the videos extra money will need to be put in in wildfire protection. One person in the town where it got to burn down. His house stayed put due to his wildfires mitigation techniques. Which included water hoses around the home. A battery and solar power back up if the grid gets disconnected. And fire protection liquid on to windows. But this set while very effective. Looked like it cost a lot of money. Probably in the ballpark. Of more than 60 grand. So these solutions are not available to everyone.